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We argue that a new U.S. proclamation on critical minerals signals the imminent use of government price floors to secure strategic materials such as silver and copper. Price floors act as de-facto demand subsidies, ensuring supply while avoiding overt tariffs. The policy implies aggressive stockpiling of above-ground supply, infrastructure investment, and eventual government ownership of market pricing power. We also believe markets are already reacting and that future opportunity lies less in metals themselves and more in small, well-run mining companies with proven reserves and limited capital access.
-VBL
Three Hat Tips
Ceo Technician (read and subscribe) for catching this before anyone and pinging me on his excellent write up
Eric Yeung (follow him) who will be writing a piece on this related topic for publication on GoldFix this weekend
Josh Phair, (follow him) CEO of Scottsdale Mint who put the pieces together on the physical side vindicating our own financial observations
GFN – WASHINGTON, Jan. 15, 2026 — President Donald J. Trump signed a presidential proclamation directing the U.S. government to negotiate adjustments to imports of processed critical minerals and their derivative products, a move aimed at reducing strategic vulnerabilities in America’s supply chains and shoring up national security.
The administration’s action stems from a Section 232 investigation by the Department of Commerce, which concluded that imports of processed critical minerals and derivative products (PCMDPs) — including rare earths, lithium, nickel, cobalt and others vital to defense, energy infrastructure, telecommunications and consumer technology — are being brought into the U.S. in such quantities and under circumstances that “threaten to impair national security.”
National Security and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
The Commerce report found that the U.S. is heavily dependent on foreign sources for critical minerals, with 12 minerals entirely import-reliant and another 29 over 50 % reliant as of 2024. Even where raw mining occurs domestically, a lack of domestic processing capacity leaves the U.S. exposed to foreign bottlenecks, notably in China, which dominates refining and advanced materials production. This structural dependence, combined with price volatility in global critical mineral markets, was judged a strategic risk.
In response, the proclamation directs the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to jointly pursue negotiations with trading partners to “adjust imports so that such imports will not threaten to impair the national security” of the United States, laying out a 180-day window to secure binding agreements or face potential alternative actions.
