When Fast Markets & Tighter Funding Collide
Forest for the Trees
A quicker note today as the market signs a breath of relief into the Thanksgiving holiday.
In this weekend’s note out yesterday morning, I wrote:
The narrative around NVDA, OpenAI, and data centers is in serious trouble. I appreciate the temptation to conclude that all the negative press over the past 72 hours around NVDA’s share price and the Google Gemini GPU terminator might suggest contra trades, but I think people are losing sight of the forest for the trees. Just because bubble decriers have spent two years being run over by a bubble doesn’t mean there won’t be blood when the turn comes, and in narrative space, the turn is real. Once you are on the backside of the narrative and flow mountain, it is a long way down in time and price. Trade the wiggles if you must, but stay focused on what matters. Still, we all know there will be furious short-covering relief rallies along the way, and the challenge as mentioned at the top is what if we get one as a function of last week’s selling?
There is a bigger issue with the forest is a key element that is suddenly, oddly invisible as people look to the Fed for salvation on December 10th (hawkish rate cut? I have no strong views here).