Positioning is Out of Control

Time to Revisit the Rollover Syndrome

I didn’t expect to be writing a full note so soon, especially on positioning and sentiment, but then I saw some surveys and notes out over the past few days and, well, positioning is out of control and my alarms are screaming at me to grab protection in US equities.

I will start with some charts. In terms of expression, I believe it is time to revisit the framework I called the Rollover Syndrome (ROS) which sadly seems to have been either broken thinking, or a year ahead of its time (I guess that makes it wrong?). For newer readers, I would strongly recommend you start by reading these three notes, in the following order:

• Nifty Fifty & The Rollover Syndrome (Nov 16, 2024)

• Revisiting the Nifty Fifty & The Rollover Syndrome (Feb 1, 2025)

• Trading the Rollover Syndrome: How I Think About Shortselling (Mar 6, 2025)

With that, let’s get into it…