PauloMacro’s Substack

PauloMacro’s Substack

Intensely Concerned for Risk — With a Catch

A Review of US Equities

PauloMacro's avatar
PauloMacro
Feb 07, 2026
∙ Paid

It is tempting for most investors to write off this week’s market action as yet more chop and index compression before another eventual move higher. While I am trying to keep an open mind (and there is one analog where things actually do move up, as I discuss at the end), as a base case I am intensely concerned that a proper bear market has finally begun after a lengthy topping process.

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