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PauloMacro’s Substack

China & Copper — When Relationships Break and Nobody Notices

An Invisible Relationship

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PauloMacro
Jul 25, 2025
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I am always intrigued when a long-held relationship breaks down. The one everyone knows well by now is when gold broke from US real yields after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US confiscated Russian reserves, forcing a flight by central banks not aligned with US priorities (real rates are inverted on the right axis, so gold is implying more than 2% negative real rates):

Source: PauloMacro via Bloomberg

I stumbled across another one recently that really got me thinking…

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