With multiple subscribers requesting an oil positioning update, I decided to use this note to address the state of the oil market more broadly. Consistent with my message over the past several weeks now, positioning data continues to suggest that traders are resisting capitulation into the rally, and if — if — they were to recommit to the long side of the market, prices could move substantially higher. Beyond positioning, I have noticed some notable developments over the past week that suggests a potential regime shift in crude could be underway just as geopolitical risks look set to expand and capture the attention of investors. I will discuss positioning first and expand from there.
A Regime Change in Oil
Positioning, Physical Markets, & Broader Thoughts
