Analog for the US Long Bond

Slowly then suddenly

The world is not the way they tell you it is. — Adam Smith, The Money Game

As a student of history trying to inform my discretionary speculative endeavors, part of my process is thinking about and seeking analogs in markets that may help me consider what a trend could look like when the meat of a major move is unfolding. It’s one thing to consider crazy extensions to a trend, but quite another to build conviction in such a view (and therefore sizing up a position) — unless an unthinkable move has actually happened before elsewhere, if you look far enough afield.